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FEBRUARY 5,  2014

(A technical problem delayed posting of "Short Takes" tonight.  Sorry.)

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:48 P.M. ET: 

NEW SOCHI WARNING – American security officials are warning airline passengers about potential "toothpaste" bombs – tubes of toothpaste in which the paste has been replaced by explosives.  Toothpaste may have to be confiscated.  The warning was directed especially at people going to the Olympics, which start in less than 48 hours.

GOOD IDEA, I THINK – From Fox:  "All police chases eventually come to an end, but we may soon see the end of all police chases.  A secret plan requiring that every car entering Europe be fitted with a system that would allow them to be tracked and disabled remotely by law enforcement has been revealed, The Daily Telegraph reports.  Documents obtained and leaked by civil rights group Statewatch outline a program being developed by the European Network of Law Enforcement Technologies that would 'work on a technological solution that can be a "build in a standard"' for all automobiles."  Sounds good, as long as the system could be made absolutely secure from hackers.  Imagine if some sinister tech group stopped all traffic, including emergency vehicles, in a country.

TYPICAL – From Fox:  "Russia is already not playing fair before the Winter Olympics have even started by seeking an advantage in denying Team USA its Chobani yogurt.  Sen. Charles Schumer of New York -- where the yogurt is made -- is calling on the Russian government to allow Chobani Greek yogurt to be delivered to Sochi for U.S. Olympic athletes and NBC Studios employees.  Schumer said Tuesday that a shipment of Chobani yogurt is being held up at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey because of 'unattainable' Russian customs certifications. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has requested that Russia approve a USDA safety certificate for the yogurt, but Schumer said Russia still won't allow the shipment."

MAJOR POLITICAL NEWS – It is reliably reported that legendary political activist Sandra Fluke, whose major concern is providing free birth control for college girls, has withdrawn as a candidate for Congress in California.  From Mediaite:  "Just hours after filing paperwork with the intention of seeking the California Democratic Party’s endorsement to replace retiring 20-term Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), Democratic activist Sandra Fluke announced on Tuesday that she was passing on that opportunity and aiming instead to be elected to the state Senate.  'I am extremely moved by the outpouring of local and national support I have received since I announced that I was considering running for office,' Fluke said in a statement released late Tuesday night. 'While I strongly considered offering my candidacy for Congress, I feel there is a better way for me to advance the causes that are important to our community.'"  Translated into English:  The local Democratic bosses told Sandy to wait her turn or hit the road.

February 5, 2014       Permalink

DISASTER – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:   Obamacare is a slow-motion train wreck, and a gift to the Republicans, if they know how to accept a gift.  The latest news about the president's "signature" achievement is stunning.  From CNBC: 

A historically high number of people will be locked out of the workforce by 2021, according to a report by the Congressional Budget Office released Tuesday.

President Barack Obama's signature health-care law will contribute to this phenomenon, the CBO said, citing new estimates that the Affordable Care Act will cause a larger-than-expected reduction in working hours—eliminating the equivalent of about 2.3 million workers in 2021.

In 2011, the CBO estimated the law would cause a reduction of about 800,000 full-time equivalent workers.

"CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 to 2 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor—given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive," said the report.

"The reduction in CBO's projections of hours worked represents a decline in the number of full-time-equivalent workers of about 2.0 million in 2017, rising to about 2.5 million in 2024," it added.

COMMENT:  Ah, progress.  Just like the old country.  Right, Comrade?  Can we start dreaming of 20% unemployment and bread lines?  And vodka for all?

Republicans are developing alternatives to Obamacare, but their announcements never get much publicity.   Again, the press has its finger on the scale.  The GOP must be ready with a major "replace Obamacare" campaign for this fall.  And their plan has to be a good, popular one, easily understandable.

February 5, 2014       Permalink

CHRISTIE PUNCHED – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:  There's no question about it – Chris Christie has taken a substantial hit in the polls ever since "Bridgegate" descended on him.  The mainstream media is delighted.  Who is this guy to challenge Queen Hillary? 

Nothing said against Christie has been proved, and he continues to deny any involvement in corruption.  But the constant pounding by The New York Times and others has hurt.  His defense has been entirely verbal and personal.  He's not been able to present any real evidence exonerating him, not so far at least.

And this is the worst kind of problem for a politician contemplating a run for higher office – a constant drip, drip, drip, in a state famous for underhanded political dealing.  The investigations into his office's behavior can be constructed to go on and on.  Many of the investigative agencies, like the U.S. Attorney's office, are in Democratic hands.  The numbers are telling.  From CNN: 

In late November and early December, in the wake of Chris Christie's landslide re-election victory, the Republican governor from New Jersey was riding high in the polls.

Christie topped the other potential GOP 2016 White House hopefuls in surveys of Republicans' choice for their next presidential nominee, and he was knotted up with Hillary Clinton in hypothetical general election showdowns.

Now, after month of intense media scrutiny over a couple of controversies in his state, Christie's numbers have faded, according to a new CNN/ORC International survey.

In a possible 2016 matchup with Clinton, the poll indicates Christie trails the former secretary of state by 16 percentage points, with Clinton at 55% and the Governor at 39% among registered voters nationwide. That's a dramatic switch from December, when Christie held a 48%-46% edge over Clinton.

"Christie has also lost ground among independents, who were the key to his strong showing late last year," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Christie got 59% support among Independents in December. Now that has dropped to 39%."

COMMENT:  This may well be fatal to any presidential dreams Christie has, but please remember that Clinton herself took a drop in the polls after she left the secretary of state's office, and there's no question but that Benghazi played a role.  In that case it is she who suffers from the drip, drip, drip.

We can count our blessings.  If Christie has to be cut from the scrimmage, I'd rather have it now than later, when the damage would be greater.

And miracle comebacks do happen in politics.  Nixon came back from a crisis over a slush fund in 1952, with his famous "Checkers" speech.  Clinton came back from charges of infidelity (they were true) in 1992.  And Churchill had been written off in British politics before his rebirth as a leader in 1940.  So predictions must be tinged with caution.

February 5, 2014      Permalink

WHAT DID YOU THINK WOULD HAPPEN, JOHN? – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  French-speaking Secretary of State John Kerry is apparently starting to realize that critics of his nuclear deal with Iran may well have been right – that once the European businessmen start lining up in Tehran, it will be virtually impossible credibly to threaten the Iranians with a renewal of sanctions should further talks collapse.  Glad you noticed, John.  From Reuters: 

DUBAI - US Secretary of State John Kerry has told his French counterpart a trip to Iran by French business executives was "not helpful" and gave the wrong impression that Tehran was open for business as usual, a US official said.

Under an interim deal reached between Iran and six world powers last November, Tehran agreed to limit parts of its nuclear program in exchange for the easing of some international sanctions.

The relaxation in penalties has triggered a race among Western firms to explore lucrative business opportunities. On Monday Iran welcomed more than 100 executives from France's biggest firms - Paris's most senior trade delegation in years.

"Secretary Kerry has talked directly to Foreign Minister (Laurent) Fabius about the trade delegation ... about how this is not helpful in this regard to ensure that in fact it is not business as usual," Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman told a hearing of US lawmakers in Washington on Tuesday.

"Tehran is not open for business because our sanctions relief is quite temporary, quite limited and quite targeted," she added.

COMMENT:  I'm afraid the barn door is open, Wendy.  The French will be followed by the Germans, and then by others.  The profits will speak more loudly than concerns about an Iranian nuclear bomb.  It would have been nice if someone in the State Department understood how the real world works.  The Iranians understand just that, which is why their diplomatic corps is renowned.

February 5, 2014        Permalink

SOCHI MINUS TWO – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:  With two days to go before the opening of the Sochi Olympics, there is an atmosphere if extreme vigilance surrounding the games.  From AP via Fox:

WASHINGTON – A top U.S. counterterrorist official says there are "a number of specific threats" aimed at the Winter Olympics that start this week in Sochi, Russia — with the greatest danger coming from the Caucasus Emirate, which has threatened to attack the games.

Matthew Olsen, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, told Congress on Tuesday that the U.S. and Russia are tracking threats of "varying degrees" of credibility. He said potential attacks seem more likely outside the venues for the games, and instead in the area or region around Sochi.

He described intelligence sharing with Russia as "good."

FBI Director James Comey said U.S. cooperation with the Russian Security Service has improved.

Russia has mounted a massive security operation for the Olympics, deploying more than 50,000 police and soldiers amid threats from Muslim insurgents.

Top U.S. security officials told President Barack Obama that all appropriate steps are being taken to keep Americans safe.

COMMENT:  We hope that all the security will deter the crazies.  Some well-sourced stories report that there's particular concern about air and rail links to the games.

February 5,  2014     Permalink

FEBRUARY 4,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:21 P.M. ET:

ON HER WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE – From The Hill:  "Activist Sandra Fluke (D) has filed paperwork to seek the California Democratic Party's endorsement for Rep. Henry Waxman's (D-Calif.) seat, a sign she's taking concrete steps toward a possible run for Waxman's district following his retirement.  Fluke sent in paperwork last Friday to the local party committee ahead of this Sunday's meeting, according to San Fernando Valley Democratic Party Chairwoman Agi Kessler."  You'll recall that Fluke made a bit of a splash last year when she led a campaign to have the federal government pay for her birth-control pills.  She was a law student at the time.  Aside from that, she doesn't appear to have delved into any other aspect of public affairs, like, say, foreign policy.  The Dems are kooky enough to select her.   She's chic and "now."  Wisdom and experience are not being sought.

SOCHI EMBARASSMENT – From CBS:  "We all know how the old saying goes when you travel: 'Don’t drink the water.'  Well in Sochi, Russia, you had better not TOUCH the water, either.  When Chicago Tribune reporter Stacy St. Clair, who is covering the Winter Olympics for the newspaper, arrived at her hotel, she was informed that there was a problem with the water and it had been shut off.  Then hotel staff delivered an ominous warning: 'Do not use on your face because it contains something very dangerous.'  Her tweet about the situation has gone viral."  The Olympics are off to a great start.  I hope the torch doesn't burn down the city.

ANYONE REMEMBER CHRISTMAS? – From the New York Daily News:  "New York City is moving to close school for two Muslim holidays and the Lunar New Year — but Mayor de Blasio isn’t so sure about the Hindu festival Diwali.  Appearing on WNYC’s 'Brian Lehrer Show' on Monday, the mayor said he hadn’t taken a position on whether Diwali, the festival of lights celebrated in India and other South Asian countries, should be a day off from school."  Pretty soon there'll be more days off than on in New York City.  I remember when the city had a school system. 

OUR SECURITY SERVICES AT WORK – From WaPo:  "The message broadcast in several states last winter was equal parts alarming and absurd:  'Civil authorities in your area have reported that the bodies of the dead are rising from their graves and attacking the living. . . . Do not attempt to approach or apprehend these bodies, as they are considered extremely dangerous.'  The reported zombie invasion was not something out of the 'The Walking Dead.' It was the federal Emergency Alert System under control of hackers — who exploited weaknesses that are disturbingly common in many critical systems throughout government, according to a Senate cybersecurity report set for release Tuesday."  This is all so silly.  The report was actually accurate.  The bodies rising were just Chicago voters going to the polls. 

February 4, 2014       Permalink

GOOD NEWS FROM SYRIA? – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  Unlikely, I know, but Britain's first-class defense reporter, Con Coughlin, has found a strange kind of good news from that horror show.  From Britain's Telegraph: 

Following the collapse of the Geneva peace talks on Syria, where the rival factions could not even agree on a ceasefire to allow humanitarian assistance to trapped civilians, there is one small scrap of good news from the battlefield: civil war has broken out between al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremists.

Speaking from his hideout somewhere on the Afghan-Pakistan border, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has disavowed one of the leading jihadist groups in Syria, the Islamic State of Syria and al-Sham (ISIS), claiming its wanton campaign of violence threatens to damage the al-Qaeda brand.
This accusation might seem a bit rich coming from the leader of an organisation who himself regularly authorises suicide bomb attacks against innocent civilians, quite apart from his role in masterminding the September 11 attacks.

But the barbarous campaign waged by ISIS jihadists in Syria, which has included mass executions of captured fighters and the imposition of Sharia law on captured villages, has proved too much for even a bloodthirsty terrorist like Zawahiri. In a statement posted on an al-Qaeda website at the weekend, the al-Qaeda frontman condemned ISIS as a renegade band that was responsible for waging war against fellow Muslims through its campaign of car bombings, mass killings and the widespread torture of its own citizens.

The tactics employed by ISIS to fulfil its goal of establishing an Islamic state in Sunni areas of northern Syria and western Iraq have already caused outrage among other jihadi fighters, and prompted fierce fighting between rival factions.

COMMENT:  Let them be divided.  I guess there are serious questions among terror groups as to how many murders are respectable. 

But let's not strain to find good news.  In the last few days we've learned of a substantial number of European Islamists fighting in Syria.  They can easily return to their own countries and create chaos.   And if they can do it in Europe, they can do it in America.  We've also had reports of Hezbollah operatives in the U.S. making use of combat-trained jihadists just back from Syria.

Indeed, the answer to those neo-isolationists who say these overseas conflicts aren't our business is that these conflicts breed embittered, fanatical veterans, sworn to glorify Islam.  And making nice with Islam has never seemed to make a difference.

February 4, 2014       Permalink

VERDICT ON OBAMA – AT 11:18 A.M. ET:  Second terms are tough, but this tough?  A new poll shows Obama edging a bit upward in one category, but in sad shape overall.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) – President Barack Obama's approval rating has edged up a bit since the end of last year, according to a new national poll.

But a CNN/ORC International survey also indicates the number of Americans who hope that his policies will succeed has dropped 12 points since last year and a majority now predicts that his policies will fail.

According to the survey, which was released Monday, 45% of the public gives Obama a thumbs-up on the job he's doing as President.

That's up from 41% in November and December, when the President was at or near all-time lows in polls from CNN and other organizations. The President's disapproval rating now stands at 50%, down from 56% at the end of last year.

"Leaving aside partisan demographics, Obama gets his biggest support from people who live in big cities, who give him a 56% approval rating," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Three groups tie for the lowest rating for Obama in the current poll - rural Americans, senior citizens, and whites. The President scores only a 36% rating among each of those groups."

COMMENT:  How sad.  What a divided nation we are.  It didn't have to be that way.  Had Obama understood the nature of his office, and not had such an ego, combined with a chip on his shoulder, he might have brought greater unity.  I'm afraid it's too late.  He doesn't have the size to be president.  Neither did Jimmy Carter, to whom Obama is often compared.  And some around him, like his attorney general, are not helpful.

Nor is it helpful for the president, in a Super Bowl-timed interview with Bill O'Reilly, to blame Fox News for his troubles.  The Fox News audience averages less than one percent of the American population.  What's the excuse for the other 99%?

February 4,  2014     Permalink

OUR NEW FRIENDS – AT 9:04 A.M. ET:   It is sickening to see the European businessmen lined up in Tehran to do business.  Do they know who they're trading with?  And it also sickens me to see American leftist groups lined up to support Obama's soft policy toward Iran.  It's the same old story – the informal linkage between the Western left and Islamism.  Both despise America.

And what is going on in Iran to arouse our revulsion?  From The Washington Times:

The number of executions carried out by Iranian authorities — often hanging dubiously convicted citizens from construction cranes in public — has risen sharply since President Hassan Rouhani took office in August, a surge most likely because of a secret power struggle within Iran’s notoriously veiled political system.

Away from positive news coverage of the Obama administration’s push for nuclear detente with Iran, the Islamic republic is executing about 66 people per month, 19 more per month than during the 2-year period before Mr. Rouhani took office, according to an analysis of figures compiled by nonpartisan groups including Amnesty International, the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center and various Iranian opposition activists in Washington.

Critics of the nuclear deal are citing the executions as evidence that Mr. Rouhani is far from the moderate reformer that many portrayed him to be upon his ascension to the presidency.

But U.S. intelligence sources, human rights advocates and high-level sources on Capitol Hill caution against jumping to that conclusion. In interviews with The Washington Times, several sources said reasons for the surge in executions are complex.

“There are indications that the Iranian regime is executing more people now compared to just a year ago,” one U.S. intelligence official told The Times on the condition of anonymity in order to speak freely about sensitive issues. “But it’s difficult to identify any overarching political strategy behind Tehran’s actions.”

COMMENT:  I love those "human rights advocates" and "intelligence sources" who caution us about being oh so judgmental.  Many "human rights" organizations today are nothing more than the grandchildren of the old Soviet-sponsored "peace" groups.  They have noble names, and that's all.

As far as "intelligence sources" are concerned, I'm not sure I'd want to stake my children's lives on the capability of intelligence agencies.  They are often politicized, and sing the piper's song.  One of the original purposes of the CIA was to provide a central clearing house for intelligence, with no political agenda.  We've seen how that's worked out.

February 4, 2014      Permalink

HOW LOW WE'VE SUNK – AT 8:43 A.M. ET:  This is actually a serious news story, based on a serious poll.  From The Hill:

Former President Bill Clinton is the “liar” the public is most able to forgive nearly two decades after his affair with then-White House intern Monica Lewinsky, according to a new poll.

According to a CBS-Vanity Fair poll, 43 percent of people said they are most able to forgive Clinton among a list of other famous people who have lied to the public.

The survey asks “which liar are you most able to forgive," listing Clinton along with cyclist Lance Armstrong, former President Richard Nixon and Bernie Madoff, who defrauded his investment clients out of billions of dollars in a Ponzi scheme.

Madoff, who is serving 150 years in prison, ranked lowest, with 3 percent who said he is most forgivable. Twelve percent chose Nixon, while 22 percent chose Armstrong, who admitted to using performance-enhancement drugs during his career.

Another 11 percent picked none of the four public figures.

COMMENT:  We sincerely congratulate former President Clinton on this honor, and hope that an appropriate plaque can be designed – MOST EASILY FORGIVEN LIAR – to be hung in a distinguished place in his office. 

He can show it to all the interns.

February 4,  2014      Permalink